The upcoming Assembly Election in West Bengal have assumed the proportion of an IPL in terms of national attention. Elections are notoriously uncertain, so crystal ball gazing is a fool’s errand. Instead of getting into predictions, it would be more fruitful to try and develop some perspectives about what it is and what it is not.
The Bengal ballot battle where stakes are high (Picture: TEd.)
This election has been ascribed a rather unnecessary sense of finality regarding the fate of West Bengal politics for the time to come. However, it is massively important for the BJP. For a party trying to claim the mantle of the only national party, it is very important to conquer West Bengal, which is almost like the final frontier. National politics today stands at a cusp, with BJP having unchallenged electoral status, but several fissures cropping up here and there in the form of farmer protests, rising inflation, economic doldrums, and more. West Bengal will provide the momentum one way or the other for the general elections not too far away.
For West Bengal, the election is less momentous than it is made out to be, in terms of political changes staked on the outcome of the polls. Even if the BJP wins, it does not have the ground level reach in West Bengal to fully change the course of policies and politics of the state the way it could do, for instance, in Uttar Pradesh. Nor does it have as much control over the party machinery in the state. A BJP victory will only come on the back of the heavyweight TMC defectors, and there will be some price to pay in terms of giving up central control. The lack of cohesion between the ‘new’ and ‘old’ BJP in the state is already showing the problems the party is encountering with the distribution of nominations.
On the other hand, a TMC victory will, by no means, ensure that the threat of BJP will go away. There is no doubt that BJP and its Hindutva politics has captured the imagination of a section of the populace. West Bengal is already polarized and polarization, unfortunately, has a tendency to exacerbate with some aid from various corners of the political establishment. The big league defections to BJP will continue to haunt the TMC after the current election as well.
The one electoral outcome that will have future consequences will be the fate of CPIM, which suffers from what political scientists call the Duverger’s Curse. Voters do not like to vote for a third party. Some CPIM supporters may vote for BJP or TMC depending on who they think is the bigger threat. However, this is only true to the extent the CPIM fails to present itself as a credible contender. There has been a recent resurgence of the Left-Congress-ISF combine with fresh (if pragmatic) ideas and faces. In fact, for the Left to win the West Bengal elections it may just be decided on one factor: whether the CPIM can hold on to its core voter base or not. A success on that front will be a fresh lease of life for the CPIM, and a failure will cast a shadow over their future in the state which they had ruled for thirty-four years.
Finally, while I have said that the effect of the outcome of the election on West Bengal is possibly overstated, some massive changes have already happened – and this is independent of the outcome. West Bengal politics has mostly been a serial monopoly: whoever wins once, tends to hold office for long periods. One would think that this has changed: Bengal’s vote can no longer be taken for granted by any party. West Bengal is likely to see an era of strong competition between Hindutva and some grassroots/left combine for some time now. One can only hope that such competition will force the government (whichever party it is) to work hard for the people, but that may be asking for too much.
Can be reached at sourav@iimcal.ac.in
Opinions expressed in this article are of the author’s and do not represent the policy of The Edition. The writers are solely responsible for any claim arising out of the contents of their articles.
Tags: #WestBengalLegislativeAssembly Election2021 #IPL #CPIM #BJP #TMC #Congress #ISF #Hindutva #Duverger’sCurse
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