Border related skirmishes between India and China are repeatitive for decades. Following the 1962 Sino-India war, the next major bloodshed between the troops of the two nations happened in 1975. After a long lull, a Doklam in 2017 had again almost pushed the two nuclear powers on the verge of a full-scale battle although the tension was eventually reigned in. 2019 saw Indian prime minister Narendra Modi and Chinese president Xi Jinping meet up for an informal rendezvous in the south Indian city of Mamallapuram, which, if not significantly fruitful, never-the-less, went off well and, attempted to act as an ice breaker of the Doklam standoff. Few months barely passed, CoVid-19 broke out which knocked off the world order and during the CoVid induced global lockdown, China and India, in May 2020, got embroiled in stray conflicts that snowballed into a bloody brawl on a June night in the freezing Himalayan heights of Galwan in East Ladakh between the Indian troops and China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), whose currents are raging along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). There have been allegations of massive troop and ammunition buildup along the border, transgression and firing on the part of both the sides, and frequent diplomatic and military level negotiations between the two sides for deescalation. As the current situation between India and China appears to veer towards a war like frenzy with the foreign ministeries of both the sides issuing a joint consensual statement of troop disengagement from along the LAC, Lieutenant General (Retd.) GURMIT SINGH speaks to Kaushik Bhowmik of The Edition and analyses in detail the instigating forces behind the conflict highlighting the geopolitics in the South Asian region.
Lieutenant General (Retd.) GURMIT SINGH, PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, VSM is currently a distinguished Fellow with Centre for Land Warfare Centre and Adjunct Fellow with Institute of Chinese Studies. Super annuated as Deputy Chief of Army Staff after serving Indian Army for forty years. Distinctively held two PSO appointments i.e. Adjutant General and Deputy COAS. Served in Kashmir (2014 to 2005) as Brigade Commander in Baramula, Brigadier General Staff in Srinagar, GOC Counter Insurgency Force in Kishtwar – Doda – Ramban and as Corps Commander in Srinagar. Had been Director China and Additional DGMO in Military Operations. Visited China seven times for Expert Group/Joint Working Group/Annual Dialogue. Led Military delegation to Beijing, Urumchi and Shanghai. Visited Pakistan twice as delegation for defence related talks. Was Military Observer in Iran with United Nation on Iran – Iraq Border. Did Training Course at National Defence University at Washington and Taipei, Taiwan. Served in OP PAWAN in Sri Lanka (1990-88). Recipient of four President’s and two Army Chief’s awards for Distinguished & Gallantry. Schooling at Sainik School Kapurthala, Punjab, trained at National Defence Academy, Pune and commisioned in Assam Regiment. M.Phil twice from Chennai and Devi Ahilya Bai University, Indore. Research Scholar with JNU & ICS (2004-03). Defence Expert on TV & Seminar Discussions.
TEd: About the Indian troops and PLA skirmish in East Ladakh, what are all the probable factors you think instigated the standoff. If we look back at the relationship between India and China in the last three years, we saw a warlike frenzy in Doklam in 2017 followed by a Modi-Xi informal summit in 2019 in Mamallapuram. In 2020 CoVid erupted and the world saw how the US president Donald Trump kept attacking China verbally dumping the entire blame of the virus spread on Xi’s nation. India was nowhere inbetween in the US-China tirade. Now, if it’s the roadway that India has build which may have been a factor inciting the clash, even then its construction work had begun long back and was going on for months. So, what in your opinion could have been the reason for the sudden Galwan flareup?
Let’s look at it from this side: take Doklam as the standpoint. From June to August, 2017, we had a standoff in Sikkim in the Doklam plateau. It went on for 73 days. A very long time from the point of view that the Indian Army chose to stand firm and challenge any Chinese movement into Indian territory, as well as prevent construction of track which they had been doing for long. However, diplomatically the issue got resolved and in August, both the sides came out of the stand-off.
After that two important events – 29th and 30th April, 2018. Place – Wuhan. In ‘Wuhan Spirit’ India spoke. This was the first time in the history that an informal and strategic dialogue was held between the heads of the two nations – Prime Minister of India and President of China. Not a small step, it was a very big move to hold a meeting at that level, and that too designed as informal yet strategic. Next step was 2019, October 12 – Mamallapuram. It was called ‘Chennai Connect’. That was also a very big message from every angle because, Mamallapuram, has another significance – India’s relationship to the sea with China.
So Wuhan Consensus, followed by Chennai Connect was an excellent strategic, informal message sharing initiative between the two leaders. In fact, we have tried every method in the kitty to find a solution to the border issue. But to no avail. So that was yet another attempt by the heads of both the nations. Worth noting here, these two nations have between them, a population of about 2.7 billion, GDP of 20 percent and are the only two ancient civilizations on earth. 2.7 billion out of the 7 billion world population. So that’s huge in terms of global accountability.
Following those two meetings, both the governments issued strategic guidance to their respective armies – PLA and the Indian Army – to maintain peace and tranquility at the border, which both the armies followed.
Now, if I look back, since the year 2000 there has been an ongoing problem in eastern Ladakh. The Chinese have constructed a road due to which every year some or the other issue crops up. Due to the obvious air of difference between the two sides, occassional spats keep occuring. In 2013, in the Depsung region, that is north of Pangong Tso, there was an ambush which went on for 12 days. Again, a year later, there was a conflict in an area called Chumur. So face-offs between the two sides keep happening.
The key issue to understand is, we have a border dispute with China, which both the sides have not been able to resolve so far. After having tried all methods, including a military advancement in 1962, the two countries reached a point where a forum of Special Representatives, that is NSA Indian side and the equivalent representative from the Chinese side, held 22 meetings until now. Yet they’ve come nowhere close to a consensus on the border dispute.
Now let’s consider the second point – Line of Actual Control or the LAC. Line of Actual Control or the last line after the 1962 conflict is what we have been confronting each other for. In east Arunachal Pradesh they went back almost to the Macmohan Line. But in the eastern Ladakh region they have not gone back beyond the Aksai Chin area. They have given several perception of theirs referring to the seventh November 1959 line, the 54 line, 60 line and the September 1960 line.
The key point in the east Ladakh army stand-off is the difference in perception both lndia and China harbours regarding the LAC. Like, we don’t know their perception, they too are in the dark about ours.
In 2000, I, as the Director, China, Military Operations, visited Beijing as part of a high level delegation to discuss about the border dispute and reach a consensus on the border map controversy that has been the bone of contention.
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The important thing to understand is, in eastern Ladakh, China is in adverse possession of Aksai Chin which is 37,555 square kilometers. And if we add the Tamchok area, it is 38,000 square kilometers. China is not in possession here. At the moment, all the face-offs between armies of the two sides are taking place on the LAC, while India claims her border that include Aksai Chin.
Next point is why this face-off happened in May-June, 2020. That is more important and raises a big question. After CoViD-19 originated or was first noticed in December, 2019 in China, China got down to making error after error. The entire world rose up against China. CoVid has by now infected 26.9 million people worldwide of which 8.8 lakh plus people have died. So 130 nations raised their voices demanding independent investigation. Even those countries which share sound relation with China, aired their disappointment. Australia pressed for independent investigation, Japan threatened to move away with their manufacturing hub from China. US and China Cold War escalated into high temperature areas. USA made it clear they have a 18 point plan to uncover China’s machinations, with support from countries like the Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet, and Shinjhen which are the redline sensitivities of China.
Now why did China kick up a war like situatiom in east Ladakh, that’s the key mood question.
You got to see it from the following angles: First, there is an internal stability issue in China. The locals have been protesting against the Chinese leadership. Within the Chinese Communist Party, the members are raising their concerns regarding protest against the leadership. And the Chinese leader is the one who is wearing 12 to 13 caps or hats on his head. He is trying to become the core leader, vying to take the entire country to a Chinese dream level by the year 2049 as the most developed nation in the world. Initially he tried to hoodwink the World Health Organisation (WHO) and tried to tell all lies about the Corona virus spread. In fact, if we look at the personality of China, it has got a great wall. It has never let the world know what it is. They have got too many things to hide about themselves.
In May first week, on the 5th and 6th, there was a face-off between the two patrols which led to violent injuries on both sides. What generally happens is, when both the troops venture into the area of conflicting perception, they confront each other, get into a tussle and then part away from there. Both the sides lodge complaints. There is an effective mechanism that sorts out things. Again on May 9 in North Sikkim we had another face-off, which was also an ugly one in which 4 Indian soldiers and 9 Chinese soldiers got injured. In fact, it was not only the Pangong Tso region, in five other areas too, he built up his troops, Chinese activity increased manifold as is evident now. Even satellite pictures showed he got hundreds of tents built up there, brought in heavy vehicles, construction materials and similar items. To complicate matters, after we inaugurated the Darchula-Lipulekh road in Uttarakhand area, he instigated Nepal to issue a unilateral map, leading to fresh problem in the area of Trijunction – Trijunction of Lipulekh. Trijunction means three parties should be involved. But in the current instance, it was only Nepal. Nepal has got a communist government which has borrowed huge quantum of debt loan from China. They came out with absolutely anti-India perspective. Not only this, in PoK, China and Pakistan governments have signed a contract for Diamer Bhasha dam. Simultaneously all these happened, you know. Therefore, the activity in east Ladakh is neither isolated, nor localized, it is connected to a bigger issue.
China has major issues to tackle. It has got problems in the South China sea, it is trying to show aggressive steps there. It is in conflict with Taiwan. It has given warnings to Taiwan and tried to scare them. It is also at cross with Hong Kong, Vietnam and Philippines. All its diplomats were charged or directed to become wolf warriors. These people came out with the most undiplomatic statements in Australia, Germany, UK, US. It means it all emanated from one central point which decided to be aggressive, provocative and militarily instigating. So, if you connect all the dots, you find that China has pressed its foot on the accelerator on all the fronts it has got.
With India, however, China, from their enhanced activity in eastern Ladakh, found to their dismay, that the Indian army has been alert, Indian army is prepared and the Indian army of 2020 is far more advanced. Actually they should have noticed this in 2017 when Doklam happened.
Indian Army of 2020 is totally a different force, far from China’s perception of 1962. Hence they committed the biggest folly with this face-off. Indian army has given them the worst showdown, that turned out to be their worst nightmare. Our army has been holding them at bay on a firm ground. To play down the Indian power, their media outlets like the Global Times and others are often airing their country’s propaganda belittling the present Indian army. But they do not know after ’62 what Indian army has achieved. In 1967 in Nathula and Chola, the Chinese, in conflict with the Indian army, faced a big casualty. Officially, they claimed 68 deaths, but actually 400 Chinese soldiers got killed in that ambush. In 1971, the entire world saw how Indian army terminated East Pakistan and started a new nation, Bangladesh. So the world has known, the power of the Indian Army.
Indian Army combat is far, far, far superior than the Chinese brigade. What is Chinese army? PLA. It is a political party’s army. It is made to control and fight against their own people. All their valour, achievements, accomplishments are against their own citizens. They can only deter and scare them, but grossly lack in combat expertise. Their last combat experience was in 1979 against Vietnam in which they were defeated royally and nicely.
They know about it, that 70 percent of the PLA are the children of one single family system, and all those youths who comstitute the PLA belong to that grooming where they are the only child. And that’s why China has taken on to itself to excel in media war, psychological war, propaganda war and legal war, They are good at this but can’t do fighting which they’re also very much aware of.
Let me also add one more point. China has been sending their troops to the UN peacekeeping. This incident is one of July 2015. Country was South Sudan. Place, Zuba. The local rebels in South Sudan. had attacked the post where AIDS workers were stationed. The AIDS workers were to be protected by the UN peacekeeping forces for which the Chinese soldiers were deployed there. When the rebels attacked that place, the Chinese forces, most of them didn’t come out of their rooms, some left their barracks, and weapons and fled from there. For four days firing continued. Two Chinese soldiers got killed. It was then when the Indian battalion, which was also part of the UN forces there, came to their rescue and saved these Chinese troops.
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Let me mention another instance of the inferior equipments the Chinese army uses. Since they know they don’t have combat expertise they try to do a lot of exercises with armies of different countries. They have been doing with us also. Eight times we have done hand in hand exercise with them. But that was on the principle of counterterrorism. In one such joint military training session with the Russian Army, the Chinese had taken their tanks and other ammunition. At one point while the Chinese tanks were passing along a ridge they got stuck in the obstacle. While forcing the vehicles to move out, the wheels of some of those tanks came out. So one can well imagine the standard of the equipments which they have got. Practically, they are not as good as they portray them to be, it’s all lies, propaganda, delusion thet they live in.
Presently the Chinese have gone wrong in their calculations. They thought they will do this detering act in eastern Ladakh and will succeed in, like what you started your point from, scare India from not enhancing relationship with the US, Australia, Japan and all these nations because relationship between the US and India has grown manifold, the friendship between the two leaders – president of USA, and Prime Minister of India – the world has seen. Entire globe saw how Houston went about. They saw the happenings at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) summit. They saw how the visit of Trump was to Delhi. From all these, China, in fact, is feeling scared. The way, Indo-US equation is going up, they are upset.
But at the same time, all our problems, we got to solve in our own ways. Our policies should be based on strategic autonomy which must ensure that our national interest for capability, capacity and skills go up. Now the environment in India is different. The capability, capacity and skill of the Indian army is above scale. And secondly, as far as our government is concerned they have adopted a new trend. They are into the trend of taking national decision, implementing a very resolute thinking, and they are also on the path of exercising national will. In fact, two steps two dates, one has got to see – one was 26th February when Balakot airstrike was done. Second was 5th August, when abrogation of Article 370 was done. The world has seen that the present setup takes decisions. And therefore, China felt threatened when India in November 2019, came out with the Survey of India map which included the Union territory of Ladakh. In the same manner we have also shown the Aksai Chin area on our side which is our sovereign right to do. Also we gave indication to both Pakistan and China that Aksai Chin belongs to India. In fact, both Pakistan and China have got no border amongst themselves at all. We have border even with Afghanistan, of 136 kilometers. We have stated that PoK will be taken back and China’s economic corridor is not acceptable to us. These are the redlines which have been shown to both the sides very clearly. Therefore, if you do summation of all these factors, it becomes clear why this violent face-off happened and what is the reason behind the whole purpose.
You know, China has been sitting on a pile of lies. They are sitting on a mountain of vulnerabilities. They’ve been investing too much in media warfare, psychological warfare, legal warfare and all such modes of aggression, but they forget that they have far too many vulnerabilities starting from inner internal cohesion to external threats which they have got to tackle.
TEd: Now let me get into the China-Bangladesh diplomacy. Its known, China has been instigating Pakistan for quite a long time now and as per reports they have recently attempted to push, from the back, Nepal against India. Do you assess China is in the process of instigating Bangladesh against India as well because Bangladesh is India’s another immediate neighbour, and, China is learnt to be, big time, financially supporting the Bangladesh government and, according to sources, urging the Hasina regime to setup Chinese ‘Sister Cities’ in a bid to make way deep into Bangladesh?
You asked me a very good question. Let me tell you, first I have great respect for for Bangladesh. I’ll give you the reason. When I was a Major I was in the United Nations on a mission to Iran and Iraq. There was a Bangladeshi contingent which was on the Iraq side and I was on the Iran side. We used to keep meeting at the flag meeting points between two UN sides. There was a Bangladeshi officer, we became good friends. Both of us were Majors. This I am talking about 1990 when East and West Germany got united. He told me very touchingly, Sir, the way, the two German sides are joining up, will the day come when Bangladesh and India will also join up. I said, this is an extremely touching and delicate question.
I think natural forces or the social forces are more stronger always, they shape up things. And second thing what he told me touched me more. He said, my child is not well. Why should I take him to Indonesia or Thailand. Why can’t I bring him to Calcutta. I said, your question is too deep. And I don’t feel good that your child should be taken to so far a distance. You should just walk into Calcutta, and have him treated. I told him, wait for the nature to correct the things. Another instance, two officers attended a course with me in National Defense College. One, a naval officer, was the ADC to their earstwhile president, and the second one, also another Armoured Core officer, very fine officer. The beauty of interacting with the Bangladeshi people is that they are very educated, they love culture, they love reading. They talk intellect. I’m very impressed with the Bangladeshi people. The fundamentalism and extremism of Pakistan was affecting them because Pakistan decided to take US spin to Islam and use it for their own security perspective, their error aspect, their terror aspect, their proxy aspect. So they exploited a large section of the Islamic people and got them down to all illegal acts. Islam is a religion. And every religion is supposed to give peace, good sense and human contact with one another. But Pakistan tried to spin it, you know. However, Bangladeshi officers I have interacted with, I found them intellectually very high. I got great regards for them. Why I narrated the above two examples is to make it clear, come what may, Bangladeshis understand what China is attempting at and the affinity the Bengalis of the east have towards India. They do understand. In fact. it is some vicious forces within Bangladesh, which instigates them to connect to the fundamental and extremist perspectives of Pakistan. They also want to get in contact, with the communist content of China to exploit this region of South Asia, and try to create imbalance. Actually, you know, Sri Lanka has understood, Maldives has understood, Bhutan understands it very deeply now. And I think, Nepal will also understand because it’s walking under a trap. China has laid a big trap into these people. Pakistan is also realizing because Pakistan’s economy is shattered. It is now admitting that its generation of people who should have been working in the factories, schools or been a builder of the nation are, all deep in the China fold. They are into drugs or other illicit activities, or into poverty or have become insurgents. China is not letting the Pakistanis out of it. And Pakistan has been so badly trapped by China, by their mechanization, by the debt loans, there is barely any glimmer of hope for them to come out of that trap. The way they’re being moulded in the hands of China, the only fallout is implosion within Pakistan.
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But Bangladeshis are a very intellectual set of people. If you go to learn micro financing, learn from Bangladesh, if you want to learn how to setup textile industry, learn it from Bangladesh, if you want to learn about education learn from them, if you want to learn counterterrorism, learn from them, if you want to learn how to check the subversion of government organization, learn from them. The Bangladeshis are true nationalists. And wherever I have met Bangladeshi officers I found they talk sensible, they think logical. Yes, there may be a few elements within them who have been bitten by the extremism bug, but that is a limited number, and let me tell you, the government to government relationship with India and Bangladesh is on an even ground. In fact, I think the best cooperation of intelligence is between Bangladesh and India. There is no doubt. So for China to penetrate Bangladesh the way it has breached Pakistan and Nepal, I firmly think, is very unlikely.
TEd: Now, let us consider Russia. Last year India put in big money for developmental purpose in Russia’s Far East (RFE) region, Vladivostok. It’s widely known, Russia has, if not a very good relationship, at least, an amicable one with China and Russia wouldn’t like to put India on the wrong side either for the defence purchase India makes from the Putin administration. So, in the India-China tussle that is going on now, what is your assessment of Russia’s role. Putin generally speaks very less, so no way to guage Russia’s plans and while India has a friendly relationship with the US, Russia is anti-America. In south Asian regional geopolitics how is this equation working out keeping the Galwan issue in hindsight, although a consensual statement for easing of border conflict has been issued jointly by India and China at a meeting in Moscow, notwithstanding the earlier trends when both countries appeared to reach consensus but those did not guarantee lasting peace?
First, the best, reliable and most creditable friend India has had, is Russia. All the wings of our Armed Forces – Army, Navy, Air Force – have major portion of Russian equipments. Second, Russia has always come to our aid. They have helped in bringing up our industrial setups, our nuclear aspects and several other verticals. When we look at the US, there is a lingering doubt in mind if we can trust America? Will the national interest of the US be overbearing on our requirements. However, there is hardly any doubt when it comes to Russia. They have always stood by us.
If I ask myself, does Russia trust India more, or China. Well, there is no doubt in my mind that Russia trusts India more. Any country which has got direct border with its neighbouring country, it is difficult to trust that country, and Russia has its border and its own problems with China. In fact, it is unfortunate that the USSR got disintegrated. China gained a lot from the free pool of Russian scientists, technicians whom China picked up, carried out copy-paste and reverse engineering and went up higher on their defense production. Again, from countries like Ukraine and others, China has wriggled out a good deal of technology.
Now, Russia, if you look at it, they are fighters by nature, fighters against their harsh weather and other odds. They are going through a very steady path of resurgence. They will take some time to research to the level that they want to achieve. So, they will never make the same mistake of the Cold War dynamics with the US, and then overstretch their animosity that might result in tripping their economy. The Russians are more focussed on rebuilding themselves. They got to overcome the Cold War still left over effect on themselves. NATO, though is still not totally gone, however, Russia has several challenges. But one thing is for sure, if you look at Russia you will see it has been finding, researching and recovering on all its strategic areas and doing them perfectly. That’s the way I look at, but overall I will say, I love the credibility of friendship of India and Russia.
Tags: #IndiaChinaStandOff #Galwan #LineOfActualControl #EastLadakh #Doklam #Covid19 #WuhanConsensus #ChennaiConnect
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